Tuesday March 29 2011
13:00
Scuola Normale Superiore
Aula Bianchi
Monica Billio
Department of Economics – Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia
Abstract
We propose several econometric measures of systemic risk to capture the interconnectedness among the monthly returns of hedge funds, banks, brokers, and insurance companies based on principal components analysis and Granger-causality tests. We find that all four sectors have become highly interrelated over the past decade, increasing the level of systemic risk in the finance and insurance industries. These measures can also identify and quantify financial crisis periods, and seem to contain predictive power for the current financial crisis. Our results suggest that hedge funds can provide early indications of market dislocation, and systemic risk arises from a complex and dynamic network of relationships among hedge funds, banks, insurance companies, and brokers.
Joint work with Mila Getmansky, Andrew W. Lo, and Loriana Pellizzon.