Motivated by the evidence that real-world networks evolve in time and may exhibit non-stationary features, we propose an extension of the Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs) accommodating the time variation of network parameters. Within the ERGM framework, a network realization is sampled from a static probability distribution defined parametrically in terms of network statistics. Inspired by the fast growing literature on Dynamic Conditional Score-driven models, in our approach, each parameter evolves according to an updating rule driven by the score of the conditional distribution. We demonstrate the flexibility of the score-driven ERGMs, both as data generating processes and as filters, and we prove the advantages of the dynamic version with respect to the static one. Our method captures dynamical network dependencies, that emerge from the data, and allows for a test discriminating between static or time-varying parameters. Finally, we corroborate our findings with the application to networks from real financial and political systems exhibiting non stationary dynamics.
Author Archives: Giacomo Bormetti
L.M. Calcagnile, G. Bormetti, M. Treccani, S. Marmi, F. Lillo, Collective synchronization and high frequency systemic instabilities in financial markets, Quantitative Finance 18 (2), 237-247
We present some empirical evidence on the dynamics of price instabilities in financial markets and propose a new Hawkes modelling approach. Specifically, analysing the recent high frequency dynamics of a set of US stocks, we find that since 2001 the level of synchronization of large price movements across assets has significantly increased. We find that only a minor fraction of these systemic events can be connected with the release of pre-announced macroeconomic news. Finally, the larger is the multiplicity of the event—i.e. how many assets have swung together—the larger is the probability of a new event occurring in the near future, as well as its multiplicity. To reproduce these facts, due to the self- and cross-exciting nature of the event dynamics, we propose an approach based on Hawkes processes. For each event, we directly model the multiplicity as a multivariate point process, neglecting the identity of the specific assets. This allows us to introduce a parsimonious parametrization of the kernel of the process and to achieve a reliable description of the dynamics of large price movements for a high-dimensional portfolio.
Taranto, D. E., Bormetti, G., Bouchaud, J.-P., Toth, B., and Lillo, F. (2016). Linear models for the impact of order flow on prices II. The Mixture Transition Distribution model
Modeling the impact of the order flow on asset prices is of primary importance to understand the behavior of financial markets. Part I of this paper reported the remarkable improvements in the description of the price dynamics which can be obtained when one incorporates the impact of past returns on the future order flow. However, impact models presented in Part I consider the order flow as an exogenous process, only characterized by its two-point correlations. This assumption seriously limits the forecasting ability of the model. Here we attempt to model directly the stream of discrete events with a so-called Mixture Transition Distribution (MTD) framework, introduced originally by Raftery (1985). We distinguish between price-changing and non price-changing events and combine them with the order sign in order to reduce the order flow dynamics to the dynamics of a four-state discrete random variable. The MTD represents a parsimonious approximation of a full high-order Markov chain. The new approach captures with adequate realism the conditional correlation functions between signed events for both small and large tick stocks and signature plots. From a methodological viewpoint, we discuss a novel and flexible way to calibrate a large class of MTD models with a very large number of parameters. In spite of this large number of parameters, an out-of-sample analysis confirms that the model does not overfit the data.
N. Angelini, G. Bormetti, S. Marmi, F. Nardini, A Stylized Model for Long-Run Index Return Dynamics , Essays in Economic Dynamics, 111-122
We introduce a discrete-time model of stock index return dynamics grounded on the ability of Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earning ratio to predict long-horizon market performances. Specifically, we discuss a model in which returns are driven by a fundamental term and an autoregressive component perturbed by external random disturances. The autoregressive component arises from the agents’ belief that expected returns are higher in bullish markets than in bearish markets. The fundamental term, driven by the value towards which fundamentalists expect the current price should revert, varies in time and depends on the initial averaged price-to-earnings ratio. The actual stock price may deviate from the perceived reference level as a combined effect of an idyosyncratic noise component and local trends due to trading strategies. We demonstrate both analytically and by means of numerical experiments that the long-run behavior of our stylized dynamics agrees with empirical evidences reported in literature.
Taranto, D. E., Bormetti, G., Bouchaud, J.-P., Toth, B., and Lillo, F. (2016). Linear models for the impact of order flow on prices I. Propagators: Transient vs. History Dependent Impact
Market impact is a key concept in the study of financial markets and several models have been proposed in the literature so far. The Transient Impact Model (TIM) posits that the price at high frequency time scales is a linear combination of the signs of the past executed market orders, weighted by a so-called propagator function. An alternative description — the History Dependent Impact Model (HDIM) — assumes that the deviation between the realised order sign and its expected level impacts the price linearly and permanently. The two models, however, should be extended since prices are a priori influenced not only by the past order flow, but also by the past realisation of returns themselves. In this paper, we propose a two-event framework, where price-changing and non price-changing events are considered separately. Two-event propagator models provide a remarkable improvement of the description of the market impact, especially for large tick stocks, where the events of price changes are very rare and very informative. Specifically the extended approach captures the excess anti-correlation between past returns and subsequent order flow which is missing in one-event models. Our results document the superior performances of the HDIMs even though only in minor relative terms compared to TIMs. This is somewhat surprising, because HDIMs are well grounded theoretically, while TIMs are, strictly speaking, inconsistent.
G. Bormetti, L. M. Calcagnile, M. Treccani, F. Corsi, S. Marmi, F. Lillo, Modelling systemic price cojumps with Hawkes factor models , Quantitative Finance 15 (7), 1137-1156
Instabilities in the price dynamics of a large number of financial assets are a clear sign of
systemic events. By investigating portfolios of highly liquid stocks, we find that there are a
large number of high-frequency cojumps. We show that the dynamics of these jumps is
described neither by a multivariate Poisson nor by a multivariate Hawkes model. We
introduce a Hawkes one-factor model which is able to capture simultaneously the time
clustering of jumps and the high synchronization of jumps across assets.
Sabelli, C., Pioppi, M., Sitzia, L. and Bormetti, G. (2014). Multi-curve HJM modelling for risk management.
We present a HJM approach to the projection of multiple yield curves developed to capture the volatility content of historical term structures for risk management purposes. Since we observe the empirical data at daily frequency and only for a finite number of time to maturity buckets, we propose a modelling framework which is inherently discrete. In particular, we show how to approximate the HJM continuous time description of the multi-curve dynamics by a Vector Autoregressive process of order one. The resulting dynamics lends itself to a feasible estimation of the model volatility-correlation structure. Then, resorting to the Principal Component Analysis we further simplify the dynamics reducing the number of covariance components. Applying the constant volatility version of our model on a sample of curves from the Euro area, we demonstrate its forecasting ability through an out-of-sample test.
Available at: http://arxiv.org/abs/1411.3977
Taranto, D. E., Bormetti, G., and Lillo, F. (2014) The adaptive nature of liquidity taking in limit order books. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment 2014.6: P06002
In financial markets, the order flow, defined as the process assuming value one for buy market orders and minus one for sell market orders, displays a very slowly decaying autocorrelation function. Since orders impact prices, reconciling the persistence of the order flow with market efficiency is a subtle issue. A possible solution is provided by asymmetric liquidity, which states that the impact of a buy or sell order is inversely related to the probability of its occurrence. We empirically find that when the order flow predictability increases in one direction, the liquidity in the opposite side decreases, but the probability that a trade moves the price decreases significantly. While the last mechanism is able to counterbalance the persistence of order flow and restore efficiency and diffusivity, the first acts in the opposite direction. We introduce a statistical order book model where the persistence of the order flow is mitigated by adjusting the market order volume to the predictability of the order flow. The model reproduces the diffusive behaviour of prices at all time scales without fine-tuning the values of parameters, as well as the behaviour of most order book quantities as a function of the local predictability of the order flow.